By the Smart Wave Analysis team. Published November 4, 2026. Prices as of 08:12 UTC.
The Nikkei 225 fell as much as 4.84% to 60,030 on November 4, 2026, its lowest level since May, before rebounding toward 62,000. Nikkei futures (NKD) traded near 61,380. On October 27 we expected a bounce into 65,400 to 66,600 before the next leg lower. Futures topped near 65,525 and have now broken below the 61,700 low, which starts wave (3) down. Our target zone stays at 58,000 to 58,400, and the count is valid while price holds below 65,525.
Key takeaways
- The drop: the Nikkei hit 60,030, its lowest since May, led by AI and chip stocks such as Disco, SoftBank Group and Advantest.
- Our call: the October 27 count expected a bounce to 65,400 to 66,600. Futures topped near 65,525, inside that zone, and then turned lower.
- Wave count: wave (2) is complete, and wave (3) of wave (C) is now underway.
- Risk line: a move above 65,525 would cancel the count. The target zone of 58,000 to 58,400 is unchanged.
This is an update to our October 27 Nikkei Elliott Wave analysis. Below we check that call against what happened, explain today’s selloff, and update the levels. You can also follow the live count on our Nikkei 225 analysis page.
How our October 27 count played out
On October 27, Nikkei futures traded near 63,385 after the first drop of wave (C). We said the bounce, wave (2), would likely end in the 65,400 to 66,600 zone, and that a new leg lower would follow while price stayed below 71,500.
The bounce topped near 65,525, inside our zone, and the decline resumed. On November 4, futures broke below the wave (1) low at 61,700. The final target zone has not been reached yet, so we will keep tracking it here and on the market page. We show both the parts that worked and the part that is still open, because a count is only useful if it is checked.
Why Japanese stocks fell on November 4
AI and chip stocks led the selling. Early US midterm projections pointed to Democratic gains in Congress, which raised worries about tighter rules for new AI data centers and slower spending on them. Disco fell about 10%, SoftBank Group and Advantest dropped more than 8%, and Tokyo Electron lost about 7%.
The AI trade was already weak. The Nasdaq 100 entered a correction in late October, and Japanese chip stocks have followed it lower. The index then rebounded about 3% from the low later in the session. For the US side, see our Nasdaq 100 wave count.
Updated Nikkei futures Elliott Wave count
The structure from our October 27 article is unchanged. We read the move since the June high near 73,800 as an A-B-C correction:
- Wave (A): the drop from about 73,800 to about 60,700 in late July.
- Wave (B): the rally to about 71,500 in early October.
- Wave (C): the decline from 71,500. Wave (1) reached 61,700, wave (2) ended near 65,525, and wave (3) has now started.
Third waves are usually the strongest part of a trend, so bounces during wave (3) tend to be short. Today’s rebound toward 62,000 fits that pattern as long as it stays below the 62,600 to 63,200 area. On the cash index, the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 50,567 to 72,832 sits at 59,072, close to our futures target zone. You can check these levels with our Fibonacci calculator.
| Level | NKD futures | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Invalidation | 65,525 | Wave (2) high. A move above cancels the count |
| Wave (1) low | 61,700 | Broken on November 4, now resistance |
| Price | 61,380 | November 4, 2026 |
| Target zone | 58,000 to 58,400 | Wave (C) equals (A), plus the 61.8% retracement |
| Extension | 55,300 | Wave (C) at 123.6% of wave (A) |
How we built this count
We keep the same daily structure from our October 27 article and update it as new swings form. Futures levels come from CME Nikkei 225 futures in US dollars, and the intraday chart uses the Nikkei 225 cash index on TradingView. Targets use the Fibonacci ratio between wave (C) and wave (A). The next Bank of Japan meeting is on December 17 and 18, based on the Bank of Japan meeting schedule.
Trade plan
- Bearish viewSell bounces toward 62,600 to 63,200 on the cash index, with a stop above 63,800. The wider stop sits above 65,525 in futures.
- Targets60,000 first, then the 58,000 to 58,400 zone. Take some profit at each step.
- Event riskUS election results and the next Fed decision can swing global stocks. Check the Federal Reserve meeting calendar for dates.
- RiskSize each trade so a stop costs only 1% to 2% of your account. Our position size calculator does the math.
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Frequently asked questions
Why did the Nikkei fall on November 4, 2026?
AI and chip stocks led the selling after early US midterm projections pointed to Democratic gains, raising worries about tighter rules for AI data centers. Disco fell about 10%, and SoftBank Group and Advantest fell more than 8%.
How low did the Nikkei go?
The Nikkei 225 fell as much as 4.84% to 60,030, its lowest level since May, before rebounding toward 62,000 later in the session.
What is the Nikkei futures Elliott Wave target?
Our count shows Nikkei futures in wave (3) of wave (C) down from the June high. The target zone is 58,000 to 58,400, with 55,300 if selling speeds up. A move above about 65,525 would cancel the count.
Did the October 27 Nikkei count work?
Yes, so far. On October 27 we expected a bounce into 65,400 to 66,600 before the next leg lower. Nikkei futures topped near 65,525 and then broke below the 61,700 low. The 58,000 to 58,400 target has not been reached yet.
Sources
This analysis is for education and is not financial advice. Elliott Wave counts are probabilities, not certainties. Read our risk disclaimer.
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