Current count: as of 16 Oct 2026, the primary daily count for Bitcoin is Wave 4 pullback (of 5 up from the July low) with a bullish bias. The count stays valid while price holds 66,800.
Current Bitcoin wave count
Bitcoin bottomed near 57,800 in early July and has since climbed in five wave structure. Wave 1 topped near 66,800, wave 2 held 62,500, and wave 3 carried price to about 87,500 in early October. The current dip looks like wave 4, with support at the 23.6% retracement near 81,600 and the 38.2% retracement near 78,000. Once wave 4 ends, wave 5 targets 88,500 (equal to wave 1) and 96,500 (61.8% of waves 1 through 3). A daily close below 75,000 would favor the alternate count, and a break below 66,800 would invalidate the bullish count.
Key levels
| Type | Levels |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 87 · 500 · 90 · 000 |
| Support | 81 · 600 · 78 · 000 · 75 · 000 |
| Invalidation | 66,800 |
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin (BTC) is a digital currency that runs on a public network with no central bank or company in charge. It was described in a white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto in October 2008, and the network went live in January 2009. New coins are created by miners who secure the network with computing power, a system called proof of work.
The total supply is capped at 21 million coins. Every 210,000 blocks, about once every four years, the reward paid to miners is cut in half. The most recent halving, in April 2024, lowered the reward to 3.125 BTC per block.
What moves the Bitcoin price?
- Halving cycle: Each halving slows the flow of new coins. Past cycles saw large rallies in the 12 to 18 months after a halving, though past patterns are no guarantee.
- Spot ETF flows: US spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds, approved in January 2024, let large investors buy through normal brokerage accounts. Daily inflows and outflows often move price.
- Global liquidity and interest rates: Bitcoin tends to rise when money is cheap and fall when central banks tighten. Federal Reserve decisions are watched closely.
- Regulation: Rules on exchanges, stablecoins and taxes in the US, Europe and Asia can change demand quickly.
- Crowd sentiment: Fear and greed swing hard in crypto. Extreme greed often appears near wave 5 tops and extreme fear near wave 2 or C lows.
How Bitcoin moves in Elliott Wave terms
Bitcoin is often used to teach Elliott Wave because its moves are large and trend for months. Bull markets have tended to unfold in clear five-wave advances, and bear markets have retraced 75 to 85 percent of the prior rally in deep A-B-C corrections. Wave 3 is usually the strongest leg, with rising volume and few pullbacks.
Because Bitcoin trades nonstop, there are no overnight gaps. This keeps wave structures complete on intraday charts. The downside is that weekend moves can be sharp when liquidity is thin.
Tips for counting Bitcoin waves
Start with the weekly chart to find the larger cycle, then use the daily chart for the active wave. Watch the round numbers in thousands of dollars; they often act as magnets for wave targets.
Bitcoin key facts
Bitcoin Elliott Wave FAQ
How often does the Bitcoin halving happen?
Every 210,000 blocks, which works out to about every four years. The last halving was in April 2024 and the next is expected around 2028.
Is Bitcoin good for Elliott Wave analysis?
Yes. Its moves are large, its liquidity is deep and it trades 24/7 without gaps, so five-wave and three-wave patterns tend to be easy to see, especially on daily and weekly charts.
Why does Bitcoin fall so far in bear markets?
Past bear markets retraced roughly 75 to 85 percent of the previous rally. In Elliott Wave terms these are large A-B-C corrections that reset sentiment after a wave 5 top.
Sources and further reading
- Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System (white paper) (bitcoin.org)
- Bitcoin (Wikipedia)
- Spot bitcoin ETP investor bulletin (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission)
Educational content only. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Trading involves risk and you can lose money. Elliott Wave counts are probabilities, not certainties. Read our full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.
