Automatic wave scan: as of 6 Nov 2026, the automatic daily count for Wheat is Wave 1 down with a bearish bias. The count stays valid while price holds 775.75.
Current Wheat wave count
Automatic wave scan Updated daily from the latest daily close (6 Nov 2026). Computer generated from swing highs and lows, not reviewed by an analyst.
Automatic scan: price is in wave 1, the first leg of a five wave decline that began at 775.75 on 2 Sep 2026. Next levels to watch are 540.75 and 476.82. The count fails on a daily close above 775.75.
Key levels
| Type | Levels |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 775.75 · 626.75 |
| Support | 568.00 · 571.00 |
| Invalidation | 775.75 |
What is Wheat?
Chicago wheat futures trade on the CBOT, part of CME Group, in cents per bushel. Each contract covers 5,000 bushels. The CBOT contract is based on soft red winter wheat.
Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, wheat futures jumped to a record above $13 a bushel because both countries are major exporters.
What moves the Wheat price?
- Weather in key regions: Drought or floods in the US, Russia, Europe, Australia and Argentina affect supply.
- Black Sea exports: Shipping from Russia and Ukraine is a major supply factor.
- USDA reports: The monthly WASDE report updates world supply and demand estimates.
- US dollar: A strong dollar makes US wheat less competitive abroad.
- Fund positioning: Large speculative short or long positions can fuel sharp reversals.
How Wheat moves in Elliott Wave terms
Grain markets like wheat often spend long periods in downtrends, then rally sharply on supply shocks. These rallies can be impulsive but short lived. The 2022 spike and the decline that followed show a full cycle.
Seasonal factors such as planting and harvest can affect the timing of wave turns.
Tips for counting Wheat waves
Mark USDA WASDE report dates. Check the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for crowded positions.
Wheat key facts
Wheat Elliott Wave FAQ
Why did wheat spike in 2022?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine threatened exports from two of the world's largest wheat suppliers.
What is the WASDE report?
The USDA's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, which update global crop forecasts.
How is wheat priced?
CBOT wheat is quoted in cents per bushel, and one contract covers 5,000 bushels.
Sources and further reading
- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (U.S. Department of Agriculture)
- Wheat futures contract specs (CME Group)
- Commitments of Traders reports (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)
Educational content only. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Trading involves risk and you can lose money. Elliott Wave counts are probabilities, not certainties. Read our full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.
