Automatic wave scan: as of 5 Nov 2026, the automatic daily count for USD/JPY is Wave 5 up with a bullish bias. The count stays valid while price holds 156.10.
Current USD/JPY wave count
Automatic wave scan Updated daily from the latest daily close (5 Nov 2026). Computer generated from swing highs and lows, not reviewed by an analyst.
Automatic scan: price is in wave 5, the final leg of a five wave advance that began at 152.90 on 7 Sep 2026. Next levels to watch are 159.83 and 162.08. The count fails on a daily close below 156.10.
Key levels
| Type | Levels |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 158.94 · 159.00 |
| Support | 156.10 · 156.40 |
| Invalidation | 156.10 |
What is USD/JPY?
USD/JPY is the second most traded pair after EUR/USD in BIS surveys. The yen has long been a funding currency because Japanese interest rates stayed near or below zero for years. Traders borrowed yen cheaply to buy higher yielding assets, a strategy called the carry trade.
The Bank of Japan ended negative rates in March 2024, its first hike in 17 years. Japan's Ministry of Finance has bought yen to slow its fall several times, including in 2022 and 2024.
What moves the USD/JPY price?
- US and Japan yield gap: When US 10-year yields rise relative to Japanese yields, USD/JPY usually rises.
- Bank of Japan policy: Any move toward higher Japanese rates can strengthen the yen sharply.
- Intervention risk: Official yen buying can drop the pair by several hundred pips in hours.
- Carry trade unwinds: In risk-off periods, traders close carry trades and buy back yen, as happened in August 2024.
How USD/JPY moves in Elliott Wave terms
USD/JPY often trends strongly for long periods because carry flows keep pushing in one direction. These trends produce extended third waves. When the trend ends, the reversal can be violent as carry trades unwind.
The pair respects round numbers such as 150 and 160, which have also been areas where intervention happened. These levels often line up with wave 5 targets.
Tips for counting USD/JPY waves
Watch the US 10-year Treasury yield alongside the chart. Be careful holding positions near levels where Japan has intervened before.
USD/JPY key facts
USD/JPY Elliott Wave FAQ
What is the yen carry trade?
Borrowing yen at low interest rates to invest in higher yielding assets. When it unwinds, traders buy yen back, which can make USD/JPY fall quickly.
Does Japan intervene in USD/JPY?
Yes. Japan's Ministry of Finance has sold dollars and bought yen several times, including in 2022 and 2024, to slow the yen's decline.
Why does USD/JPY follow US yields?
Higher US yields make holding dollars more attractive than holding yen, so the pair tends to rise with them.
Sources and further reading
- BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey of foreign exchange turnover (Bank for International Settlements)
- Monetary policy (Bank of Japan)
- Federal Open Market Committee (Federal Reserve)
Educational content only. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Trading involves risk and you can lose money. Elliott Wave counts are probabilities, not certainties. Read our full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.
