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GBPUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Pound Eyes 1.3470 to 1.3550 Ahead of the Bank of England

By Smart Wave Analysis Research Team Published 4 min read
GBPUSD Elliott Wave analysis card: price 1.3425, targets 1.3467 to 1.3554 and invalidation 1.3273

By the Smart Wave Analysis team. Published October 30, 2026. Prices as of 09:28 UTC.

Quick answer

GBPUSD trades near 1.3425 on October 30, 2026, a new high for the rally that started at the October 15 low near 1.3139. Our count reads this rise as a three-wave rally, now in wave (C). The targets are 1.3467 to 1.3475 and then 1.3550. After that, we expect a larger pullback. The count stays valid while price holds above 1.3273. Count date: October 30, 2026.

GBPUSD, Oct 301.3425
BoE decisionNov 5
Targets1.3470 / 1.3550
Invalidation1.3273

Key takeaways

  • Driver: markets expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4% on November 5, 2026, after UK inflation rose to 3.5%.
  • Wave count: GBPUSD is in wave (C) of a three-wave rally from the October 15 low near 1.3139.
  • Targets: 1.3467 to 1.3475 first, then 1.3550 where wave (C) equals wave (A).
  • Risk line: a move below 1.3273 cancels the count. After the targets, a larger pullback is likely.

The pound is climbing as traders prepare for a likely Bank of England rate hike next week. This post explains what is driving sterling, how far the rally may go, and where it could turn lower. You can follow the daily count on our GBP/USD analysis page.

Why the pound is rising

The main driver is the Bank of England. Bank Rate stands at 3.75%, and the next decision comes on November 5, 2026, according to the Bank of England meeting calendar. In a Reuters poll taken October 12 to 14, 54 of 63 economists expected a rise to 4%. Barclays economist Jack Meaning said a change in rates now looks very likely given events in the Middle East.

What is moving the pound in late October 2026: Bank of England decision on November 5 with Bank Rate at 3.75%, 54 of 63 economists expecting a hike, UK inflation at 3.5%, UK Autumn Budget on October 28, US Q3 GDP at 3.4% and the Fed holding at 3.75% to 4.00%
Rate hike bets in the UK are the main support for sterling.

UK inflation is the reason for the hike talk. Consumer prices rose 3.5% in the year to September, up from 3.1% in August, based on Office for National Statistics inflation data. The Autumn Budget on October 28 also passed without a shock, and gilts stayed steady because the measures were broadly in line with expectations.

On the US side, the economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter, above the 3.2% estimate, and September inflation picked up. That kept the dollar firm, but the pound still pushed higher, a sign of how strong the UK rate story is. Keep our economic calendar open for the November 5 decision.

GBPUSD Elliott Wave count

The pair hit a low near 1.3139 on October 15. We read the rise since then as a three-wave rally (A, B, C), the pattern known as a zigzag:

  • Wave (A): the climb from about 1.3139 to the late October high near 1.3420.
  • Wave (B): the pullback to about 1.3273, which held well above the October low.
  • Wave (C): the rise from 1.3273 that is now in progress. On the 1-minute chart, it shows a small wave (i) at 1.3408, wave (ii) at 1.3381, and wave (iii) pushing to new highs.
GBPUSD 1-minute chart with Elliott Wave labels: wave (i) at 1.3408, wave (ii) at 1.3381 and wave (iii) in progress toward 1.3467 to 1.3475, with the count failing below 1.3381
GBPUSD on the 1-minute chart with our wave labels. Chart: TradingView.

The first target zone at 1.3467 to 1.3475 matches the targets of our daily wave scan. If wave (C) grows to the same size as wave (A), it points to about 1.3550, close to resistance at 1.3545. Three-wave rallies like this often end at those Fibonacci levels, and then the bigger trend takes over again. Read more in our zigzag correction lesson.

GBPUSD Elliott Wave levels map: October 15 low 1.3139, wave (B) low and invalidation 1.3273, price 1.3425, target zone 1.3471, target 2 at 1.3550 and major resistance 1.3675
After wave (C) ends near 1.3470 to 1.3550, a larger pullback is likely.
LevelGBPUSDWhy it matters
Major resistance1.3675Next big ceiling on the daily chart
Target 21.3550Wave (C) equals wave (A), near resistance at 1.3545
Target 11.3467 to 1.3475Daily wave scan targets
Price1.3425October 30, 2026
Short-term support1.3381Wave (ii) low on the 1-minute chart
Invalidation1.3273Wave (B) low. A break below cancels the count
October low1.3139Start of the rally
Alternate count: the rise from 1.3139 is the start of a new five-wave uptrend, not a three-wave bounce. In that case, the pair would keep climbing after 1.3550 toward 1.3675. A strong move through 1.3550 after a hawkish Bank of England decision would favor this view. Measure the swings yourself with our Fibonacci calculator.

How we built this count

We start from the daily chart to find the main trend, then use the 1-minute chart to time the current leg. Price data comes from the OANDA GBP/USD feed on TradingView. Targets come from standard Fibonacci ratios between waves, checked against the levels of our automatic daily wave scan. Every count has one invalidation level, and we update the GBP/USD page when price breaks it.

Trade plan

  • Short-term buyersBuy dips toward 1.3400 to 1.3410 while 1.3381 holds, with a stop below 1.3381. Targets 1.3467, then 1.3550.
  • Swing sellersWait for the 1.3470 to 1.3550 zone and a clear turn lower before selling. Do not fight the rally early.
  • Event riskThe Bank of England decision on November 5 can move the pound sharply. Reduce size around the announcement.
  • RiskSize each trade so a stop costs only 1% to 2% of your account. Our position size calculator does the math.
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Frequently asked questions

Why is GBPUSD rising?

Traders expect the Bank of England to raise rates to 4% on November 5, 2026, after UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September. Higher expected UK rates support the pound against the US dollar.

What is the GBPUSD Elliott Wave target?

Our count shows a three-wave rally from the October 15 low. Wave (C) targets 1.3467 to 1.3475 first and 1.3550 if it equals wave (A). After that, we expect a larger pullback.

What would cancel the bullish GBPUSD count?

A move below 1.3273, the wave (B) low, would cancel it. A drop below 1.3381 would be the first warning on the short-term chart.

When is the next Bank of England decision?

The Bank of England announces its next rate decision on November 5, 2026. Bank Rate is 3.75%, and 54 of 63 economists in a Reuters poll expected a rise to 4%.

Sources

This analysis is for education and is not financial advice. Elliott Wave counts are probabilities, not certainties. Read our risk disclaimer.

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Educational content only. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Trading involves risk and you can lose money. Elliott Wave counts are probabilities, not certainties. Read our full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.