DAX Hits Record Highs: The Elliott Wave Case for 26,702 Next

Germany’s benchmark index has been on a tear, and Wednesday added another chapter — a fresh all-time high before the index gave back some of its gains. For anyone tracking the DAX’s wave structure, this is exactly the kind of pattern that keeps a bullish count intact rather than breaking it.

Quick answer: The DAX touched a new record high of 26,438.34 before pulling back to trade near 26,217, supported by falling oil prices on signs of US-Iran progress and a strong European earnings season. Elliott Wave analysts read the rally from the 21,863 low as a five-wave impulsive structure, currently unfolding as wave 5, with an initial target near 26,702 and invalidation at 24,651.

DAX Hits a Fresh Record High

Germany’s DAX climbed to an intraday record of 26,438.34 on Wednesday before easing back to around 26,216.90, only marginally below the previous close. That kind of round trip — a fresh high followed by a partial pullback in the same session — has become a familiar pattern for the index over the past several weeks as it grinds toward new territory.

The move capped a strong start to August: the index had already jumped more than 1.5% in Monday’s session to clear 26,000 for the first time, and 52-week trading now spans from a low of 21,863.81 to this week’s record — a gain of roughly 20% off that low.

What’s Driving the Rally

Two forces have been pulling in the same direction. First, oil prices have been sliding on hopes that US-Iran talks over Gulf shipping routes are making real progress, which eases inflation worries and lifts risk appetite across European equities. Second, earnings season has been broadly kind to German companies: Siemens Healthineers jumped more than 6% after raising its full-year earnings guidance, Deutsche Telekom gained around 5% heading into its own results, and E.ON advanced after an analyst upgrade. Manufacturing and services data out of Germany also came in stronger than expected, adding to the optimism.

Not every earnings reaction has been positive, though — Infineon Technologies fell nearly 6% even after reporting record quarterly revenue and raising its free cash flow forecast, a reminder that at record index levels, good results don’t always translate into a higher stock price.

The Elliott Wave Case for More Upside

Beneath the daily headlines, wave analysts have been tracking a cleaner structure. The rally from the 21,863 low is read as a five-wave impulsive advance, with wave 4 completing at 24,651 and wave 3’s peak at 25,900 already broken to the upside — confirmation, in Elliott Wave terms, that wave 5 is now underway.

On shorter timeframes, wave 5 itself is developing as a nested sequence — smaller ((i))-((ii)) and (i)-(ii) waves building inside the larger move, with price currently advancing through wave (iii) of that structure. The expectation is a pullback in wave (iv) once (iii) finishes, followed by another leg higher into ((iii)) and ((iv)) at the next degree up. The initial target for wave 5 sits at 26,702, with the possibility of an extension beyond that level if momentum stays strong. As long as the index holds above the 24,651 invalidation level, the wider bullish structure remains intact and pullbacks are treated as buying opportunities rather than trend changes.

How This Lines Up With Wall Street’s Own Forecasts

The Elliott Wave target doesn’t sit in isolation — it lands close to where several traditional forecasting methods point too. A widely referenced Fibonacci extension of the DAX’s 2022-to-2025 bull run projects toward roughly 26,318, essentially the same neighborhood as this week’s record high. Major German banks’ year-end base-case forecasts, compiled earlier this year, clustered around 25,500–26,500 — a range the index has already reached ahead of schedule — while the more bullish scenarios from banks like DZ Bank stretch as high as 27,000–28,800.

That kind of confluence — technical and fundamental methods pointing to a similar zone — is generally treated as a stronger signal than any single forecast on its own.

Risks to Watch

Not every technical read agrees on the near term. Some chart watchers have flagged the 25,875 area as a resistance zone worth respecting, with a pullback toward 25,300 possible if the index fails to hold above it on a closing basis. The bigger swing factor is the same one driving today’s rally: the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire. Oil prices have whipsawed sharply on Hormuz-related headlines for months, and a reversal there would likely pressure the same risk sentiment that’s been lifting German equities. Infineon’s post-earnings drop is also a useful reminder that individual stock reactions can diverge sharply from the index trend even during a broad rally.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the DAX’s Elliott Wave target?

Wave analysts see an initial target of 26,702 for the current wave 5 advance, measured from the 21,863 low, with potential for an extension beyond that level if bullish momentum continues.

What would invalidate the DAX’s bullish wave count?

A drop back below 24,651 — the level where wave 4 completed — would invalidate the current bullish structure and require the wave count to be reassessed.

Why did the DAX hit a record high this week?

Falling oil prices on signs of progress in US-Iran talks, combined with strong German earnings and stronger-than-expected manufacturing and services data, supported the rally to a fresh all-time high of 26,438.34.

What is Wall Street’s DAX forecast for 2026?

Major German banks’ base-case forecasts cluster around 25,500–26,500 by year-end, a range the index reached ahead of schedule, while more bullish scenarios extend to 27,000–28,800.

What is the DAX’s 52-week trading range?

The DAX has traded between a low of 21,863.81 and this week’s record high of 26,438.34 over the past 52 weeks.

Bottom Line

The DAX’s move to fresh record highs isn’t happening in a vacuum — it’s backed by easing oil prices, a resilient German earnings season, and a wave structure that’s held together cleanly since the 21,863 low. The 26,702 Elliott Wave target lines up closely with both a key Fibonacci extension and Wall Street’s own base-case forecasts, which is the kind of technical-fundamental agreement worth paying attention to. The main thing that would change the picture is a break back below 24,651 — until that happens, dips are still being read as buying opportunities rather than the start of a reversal.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.