Automatic wave scan: as of 21 Oct 2026, the automatic daily count for XLF is Wave 4 bounce in a downtrend (possible diagonal) with a bearish bias. The count stays valid while price holds 58.60.
Current XLF wave count
Automatic wave scan Updated daily from the latest daily close (21 Oct 2026). Computer generated from swing highs and lows, not reviewed by an analyst.
Automatic scan: price is in wave 4, a pause of a five wave decline that began at 58.60 on 3 Sep 2026. Next levels to watch are 56.47 and 56.76. The count fails on a daily close above 58.60.
Key levels
| Type | Levels |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 58.60 · 56.59 |
| Support | 54.02 · 55.65 |
| Invalidation | 58.60 |
What is XLF?
XLF launched in December 1998. Its largest holdings include Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan Chase, Visa and Mastercard.
Financial stocks often do well when the economy is growing and the yield curve is steep, because banks earn more on lending.
What moves the XLF price?
- Interest rates: Rate levels and the yield curve affect bank profits.
- Credit quality: Loan defaults reduce earnings.
- Economic growth: Lending and deal activity follow the economy.
- Regulation: Capital rules affect payouts.
- Payment volumes: Visa and Mastercard track consumer spending.
How XLF moves in Elliott Wave terms
XLF's waves follow the banking cycle. Its 2007 to 2009 collapse and long recovery show a full cycle of impulse and correction. Banking stress events, such as March 2023, often form sharp wave C declines.
Compare with JPMorgan and the 10-year yield.
Tips for counting XLF waves
Compare the fund's count with the S&P 500. A sector that leads the index often keeps leading until its own wave 5 completes.
XLF key facts
XLF Elliott Wave FAQ
What is in XLF?
Banks, insurers, asset managers and payment companies from the S&P 500.
Why do financial stocks follow interest rates?
Banks earn more when the gap between short and long term rates is wide.
Is Visa in XLF?
Yes. Payment firms such as Visa and Mastercard are part of the financials sector.
Sources and further reading
- XLF fund page and holdings (Select Sector SPDR Trust)
- Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investor bulletin (U.S. SEC Investor.gov)
Educational content only. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Trading involves risk and you can lose money. Elliott Wave counts are probabilities, not certainties. Read our full disclaimer and affiliate disclosure.
